Moline, Illinois 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

338
FXUS63 KDVN 191708
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A significant warm-up will continue today through Saturday,
  with a return of near-average temperatures by Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

A quiet morning was seen across the area, under partly to mostly
clear skies. The precipitation associated with the overnight clipper
we`ve been advertising continues to be farther away from our region
to the northeast as drier than expected air remains in place. A
dProg/dt of the HREF ensemble soundings over the last three runs
shows a stronger signal for drier air below 700 mb, which bodes well
for a dry forecast for this morning. With that said, we have pulled
all probabilities of precip in our forecast area. One thing to watch
for early this morning is a low chance (10-30% per the NBM) of fog.
Pretty significant melting of the snowpack occurred yesterday, and a
stout low-level inversion remains in place, so this could provide
enough moisture needed to generate some fog across our northern CWA,
especially if we can clear out. It`s not a strong signal, and more
likely than not to not materialize, but we`ll continue to monitor.

Longwave upper ridge over the western half of the CONUS will
continue through the end of the week before breaking down by
Saturday night/Sunday. Before that occurs, the next few days will be
dry, with a significant warm-up. A strong thermal ridge will
continue to build over the central US, peaking on Saturday. For
today, even warmer temperatures are expected as the HREF ensemble
exceedance probabilities of 50 degree F or warmer temperatures are
60 to 100% (over 90% along and south of Highway 30). The NAEFS
ensemble suggests 850 mb temperatures to warm over 90 percent of
climatology, so an anomalously warm air mass is on the way.
Additionally, dew point temperatures in the mid to upper 40s will
aid to further melt the existing snowpack, so expect even more of
the snow to go bye-bye today. The above average temperatures will
continue tonight, with lows expected in the lower to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

The significant warm-up continues Friday, and especially Saturday,
as 850 mb temperatures increase even more. Signals for the building
thermal ridge by Saturday are rather impressive, with the NAEFS 850
mb climatological percentiles increasing to near the maximum of the
climatology for this time of the year. Both the GEFS and ECMWF
ensemble mean 850 mb temperatures for Saturday have values between
16 to 19 degrees C, which is impressively warm for mid-March. High
temperatures Saturday look to warm to the upper 60s over northwest
Illinois to the upper 70s over southeast IA/northeast MO/west-
central IL (isolated spots could reach the 80 degree F mark!).

As we head into Sunday, the synoptic pattern is progged to become
more zonal aloft as the upper-level western ridge breaks down. This
would be more favorable for systems to pass through our area, and
indeed, there is a signal among the global models and LREF ensemble
for a cold front to pass through the area. There doesn`t appear to
be a lot of moisture associated with the front, so the signal for
dry conditions is looking pretty favorable. However, there are
suggestions for Sunday to be a breezy day, with the ECMWF ensemble
probabilities of wind gusts over 30 mph around 40-70%. Not too
concerned with relative humidities at this time due to our ongoing
snow melt, so not thinking Sunday to be an active fire weather day.

Temperatures will cool to more seasonal values by Monday post-fropa,
with highs likely to warm to the middle 40s to lower 50s. There is a
signal for temperatures to warm up again for Tuesday and Wednesday,
but the models diverge during this period as additional systems
could move through the area during this time. However, model timing
and coverage is quite spread out among the global models, so
uncertainty remains pretty high this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with mostly
clear skies and light/variable winds through the first half of
the forecast period. After 06z, most sites will see winds out of
the southwest around 5-10 KTs, becoming northwesterly behind a
passing cold front after 12z. LLWS will be possible at CID/DBQ
tonight after 06z, generally out of the west at 40 KTs. We may
see these conditions reach MLI, but confidence is low.
Otherwise, no other sig wx is expected at this time.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Gunkel